TOPSHOT – skyline picture of downtown Dubai and Burj Khalifa in Gulf Emirates … [+]
A few weeks ago, it seemed to most foreign policy experts that Israeli planes were free to bomb Syria at will, and that its tanks were clearly within firing range of Damascus, while at the same time a new Islamic regime established itself there. Unthinkable to most foreign policy experts. The latest twist in the chaotic world of geopolitics offers a glimpse into some of the regime changes to come and the fragility of the brutal, long-lasting authoritarian regimes of the past.
I absorbed the impact of the events in Abu Dhabi, in terms of its success and trajectory, which underscored the view of some that there are “two Middle Easts.” At the same time, Abu Dhabi’s influence has risen to the point where it will serve as a guiding star for the economic fabric of the region once a viable Israeli/Palestinian peace plan is found.
Bashir Assad’s sudden departure could accelerate a reordering of the region and give other “strongmen” food for thought. A group of them might end up staying at the Ritz-Carlton in Moscow.
In fact, some scholars have tracked the escapes of deposed dictators and noted that “We find that dictators are more likely to go into exile in countries that are close neighbors, have hosted other dictators in the past, have strong military capabilities, and have colonial ties, formal alliances, and economic ties. In contrast, fleeing dictators tend to avoid democracies and countries experiencing civil war.”. More specifically, in Europe, the top three destinations for dictators are Russia, the UK and France!
Despite Assad’s fall, Syria itself is not out of the woods – Tahrir al-Sham may be media-sensitive, but they are also deadly conservative Islamists. Türkiye has clearly extended a firm helping hand to them, and Türkiye is re-establishing itself as a regional power.
Türkiye’s foreign policy is an enigma, wrapped in an enigma. I have written in the past how, in the wake of the Arab Spring, many North African countries wanted to follow the “Turkish model” of development. Since then, Recep Erdogan has weakened the country’s institutions and economic pillars and transformed its past foreign policy of “not getting into trouble with neighbors” into “getting into trouble with neighbors.”
However, Erodgan is now a key figure – especially in how he negotiates Russia’s withdrawal. There are still many unanswered questions, especially how the fall of Syria further weakened Iran and what impact this would have on Iraq. Larger regional countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia will welcome the fall of Assad and the further weakening of Iran, but must now face the prospect of a regional peace deal that will test the strength of their support for the Palestinians.
If a peace deal is reached by 2025 that preserves the two-state solution, the prospect of a regional economic recovery led by the United Arab Emirates (or Abu Dubai as some call it) may not be far away.
Visits to ministries, financial institutions (including Abu Dhabi Finance Week) and infrastructure players by Professor Afsin Molavi and several other economists and writers gave a sense of the region’s ambitions. Especially compared to previous visits to the area, two things stood out as “new developments.”
The first is that the UAE is becoming increasingly independent, going its own way in formulating policies (rather than being the policy recipient of the US and EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labor markets and trade. Specifically, on the trade front, the UAE has to be geopolitically nimble in building relationships with the United States and China, even though on the technology front, the UAE is very closely tied to the United States.
The second element worth commenting on is the idea of a “fourth pole.” I wrote an article about this last year, and the idea was that in a multipolar world made up of three “poles” (the United States, the European Union, and China), there is a fourth pole made up of India, the Gulf states, and others of space.
The concept of a “fourth pole” is gathering pace around the very close relationship between the UAE and India (Abu Dhabi’s hugely popular Hindu temple is just a symbol) and the web of trade, finance and infrastructure deals they are engaging in across the region . The relationship may not end up being as deep as that between EU countries, but it is starting to look like a modern version of the “coal and steel” community. The risk, however, is that they have excess capacity in the face of a coming economic shock or recession.
Finally, I think the best sign that the UAE feels confident and more independent is that some well-connected government advisors came up with the acronym for the West – WENA (Western Europe and North America)!
